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Chayka vs Mordovia Saransk — First League 2018

Chayka
Chayka
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mordovia Saransk
Mordovia Saransk
11/13/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Chayka40%
×Draw27%
Mordovia Saransk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
1.33
Mordovia Saransk
1.18

Chayka creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 36 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.04
Mordovia Saransk
1.00

allows per match

Chayka
1.36
Mordovia Saransk
1.61

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Mordovia Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Mordovia Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
67%
Chayka or Mordovia Saransk
73%
Draw or Mordovia Saransk
60%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
18%
Mordovia Saransk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
74%
Chayka 2+ goals
38%
Chayka 3+ goals
15%
Mordovia Saransk 1+ goals
69%
Mordovia Saransk 2+ goals
33%
Mordovia Saransk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
55%
Mordovia Saransk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Mordovia Saransk away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.04 + Mordovia Saransk defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mordovia Saransk attack 1.00 + Chayka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chayka scores more
40%
level
27%
Mordovia Saransk scores more
33%

Chayka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Chayka 3–1 Mordovia Saransk

Chayka beat Mordovia Saransk 3-1 in First League on November 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka in Peschanokopskoye.