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Chayka vs Kuban Kholding — Second League - Group 1 2020

Chayka
Chayka
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kuban Kholding
Kuban Kholding
5/21/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Chayka49%
×Draw26%
Kuban Kholding25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
1.47
Kuban Kholding
0.97

Chayka creates 52% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 91 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.97
Kuban Kholding
1.35

allows per match

Chayka
0.59
Kuban Kholding
0.97

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Kuban Kholding+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Kuban Kholding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
75%
Chayka or Kuban Kholding
74%
Draw or Kuban Kholding
51%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
24%
Kuban Kholding wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
77%
Chayka 2+ goals
43%
Chayka 3+ goals
18%
Kuban Kholding 1+ goals
62%
Kuban Kholding 2+ goals
25%
Kuban Kholding 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
66%
Kuban Kholding (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.59 · 32 matches

Kuban Kholding away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.97 + Kuban Kholding defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kuban Kholding attack 1.35 + Chayka defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chayka scores more
49%
level
26%
Kuban Kholding scores more
25%

Chayka at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chayka 0 – 2 Kuban Kholding

Kuban Kholding beat Chayka 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka in Peschanokopskoye.