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Chayka vs Kremin' II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Chayka
Chayka
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Kremin' II
Kremin' II
11/4/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 16Tsentralnyi stadion im. Mikhaila Brukvenka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Chayka72%
×Draw17%
Kremin' II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
2.30
Kremin' II
0.74

Chayka creates 211% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 21 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.55
Kremin' II
0.33

allows per match

Chayka
1.15
Kremin' II
3.05

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Kremin' II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Kremin' II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
90%
Chayka or Kremin' II
83%
Draw or Kremin' II
28%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
49%
Kremin' II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
90%
Chayka 2+ goals
67%
Chayka 3+ goals
40%
Kremin' II 1+ goals
52%
Kremin' II 2+ goals
17%
Kremin' II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
87%
Kremin' II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

Kremin' II away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.55 + Kremin' II defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.30

Kremin' II attack 0.33 + Chayka defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Chayka scores more
72%
level
17%
Kremin' II scores more
10%

Chayka at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Chayka 5–0 Kremin' II

Chayka beat Kremin' II 5-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Tsentralnyi stadion im. Mikhaila Brukvenka in Makariv.