Chayka 1–3 Karpaty II: Result & Stats

Chayka

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Karpaty II

11/12/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 17Tsentralnyi stadion im. Mikhaila Brukvenka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Chayka37%

×Draw25%

Karpaty II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChaykaExpected goals in this matchKarpaty II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

Chayka

1.39

Karpaty II

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 13 away

1.55

creates per match

1.62

1.15

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Chayka

1.55

Karpaty II

1.62

allows per match

Chayka

1.15

Karpaty II

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par

Karpaty II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Karpaty II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chayka or draw

63%

Chayka or Karpaty II

75%

Draw or Karpaty II

63%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+

17%

Karpaty II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals

75%

Chayka 2+ goals

40%

Chayka 3+ goals

16%

Karpaty II 1+ goals

75%

Karpaty II 2+ goals

40%

Karpaty II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)

50%

Karpaty II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

Karpaty II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.55 + Karpaty II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.39

Karpaty II attack 1.62 + Chayka defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chayka scores more

37%

level

25%

Karpaty II scores more

37%

Chayka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff