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Chayka vs Forte Taganrog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Chayka
Chayka
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
5/7/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Chayka48%
×Draw25%
Forte Taganrog27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
1.55
Forte Taganrog
1.10

Chayka creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 64 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.97
Forte Taganrog
1.61

allows per match

Chayka
0.59
Forte Taganrog
1.14

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
73%
Chayka or Forte Taganrog
75%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
52%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
24%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
79%
Chayka 2+ goals
46%
Chayka 3+ goals
20%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
67%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
30%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
64%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.59 · 32 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.97 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.55

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Chayka defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chayka scores more
48%
level
25%
Forte Taganrog scores more
27%

Chayka at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chayka vs Forte Taganrog

Chayka and Forte Taganrog drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka in Peschanokopskoye.