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Chayka vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2026

Chayka
Chayka
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
4/24/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 38Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chayka37%
×Draw27%
Chertanovo Moscow37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chayka
1.29
Chertanovo Moscow
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 53 away

creates per match

Chayka
1.04
Chertanovo Moscow
1.21

allows per match

Chayka
1.36
Chertanovo Moscow
1.55

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chayka or draw
63%
Chayka or Chertanovo Moscow
73%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
63%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+
16%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals
72%
Chayka 2+ goals
37%
Chayka 3+ goals
14%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
72%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
37%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)
50%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.04 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + Chayka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chayka scores more
37%
level
27%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
37%

Chayka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Chayka 1–1 Chertanovo Moscow

Chayka and Chertanovo Moscow drew 1-1 in First League on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka in Peschanokopskoye.