Chayka 2–0 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats | Cup

Chayka

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avangard Kursk

I. Oleynikov 90+4', 51' (pen)

7/28/2021

Cup · 2nd RoundStadion SKA SKVO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chayka67%

×Draw21%

Avangard Kursk11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChaykaExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.59

Chayka

1.83

Avangard Kursk

0.59

Chayka creates 210% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.33

0.86

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Chayka

1.00

Avangard Kursk

0.33

allows per match

Chayka

0.86

Avangard Kursk

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chayka+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chayka ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chayka or draw

89%

Chayka or Avangard Kursk

79%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

33%

Winning margin

Chayka wins by 2+

40%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Chayka 1+ goals

84%

Chayka 2+ goals

54%

Chayka 3+ goals

28%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

45%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

12%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Chayka (draw refunded)

86%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chayka at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chayka attack 1.00 + Avangard Kursk defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Avangard Kursk attack 0.33 + Chayka defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Chayka scores more

67%

level

21%

Avangard Kursk scores more

11%

Chayka at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chayka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Khokhlachev← A. Eliseev

51'

I. OleynikovPenalty

60'

S. Yarygin← N. Saprunov

60'

N. Kholyavskiy← B. Trifonov

71'

G. Osnov← M. Uzhgin

78'

M. Kolomiytsev← P. Volodkin

78'

S. Aliev← D. Gribanov

90+4'

I. Oleynikov

Chayka

Avangard

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: S. Tashuev

46'▲A. Khokhlachev←▼A. Eliseev

71'▲G. Osnov←▼M. Uzhgin

78'▲M. Kolomiytsev←▼P. Volodkin

78'▲S. Aliev←▼D. Gribanov

Chayka substitutes

KhokhlachevOsnovKolomiytsevAliev

Manager: D. Gershun

60'▲S. Yarygin←▼N. Saprunov

60'▲N. Kholyavskiy←▼B. Trifonov

Avangard Kursk substitutes

YaryginKholyavskiy

Match Recap: Chayka vs Avangard Kursk

Chayka beat Avangard Kursk 2-0 in Cup on July 28, 2021.

Goals: I. Oleynikov (51' pen, 90+4').

The match was played at Stadion SKA SKVO in Rostov-na-Donu.

Chayka vs Avangard Kursk — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chayka vs Avangard Kursk