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Chaves vs Vilafranquense — Segunda Liga 2018

Chaves
Chaves
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
12/29/2019Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 14Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Chaves47%
×Draw27%
Vilafranquense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaves
1.42
Vilafranquense
1.00

Chaves creates 42% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 63 away

creates per match

Chaves
1.34
Vilafranquense
1.02

allows per match

Chaves
0.99
Vilafranquense
1.49

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par
Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Vilafranquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chaves or draw
73%
Chaves or Vilafranquense
73%
Draw or Vilafranquense
53%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+
23%
Vilafranquense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals
76%
Chaves 2+ goals
41%
Chaves 3+ goals
17%
Vilafranquense 1+ goals
63%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
26%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)
64%
Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.34 + Vilafranquense defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Vilafranquense attack 1.02 + Chaves defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chaves scores more
47%
level
27%
Vilafranquense scores more
27%

Chaves at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chaves vs Vilafranquense

Chaves beat Vilafranquense 2-1 in Segunda Liga on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Chaves.