Chaves 0–0 Sporting CP B: Result & Stats

Chaves

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting CP B

11/23/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 9Estadio Municipal de Chaves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chaves46%

×Draw28%

Sporting CP B27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChavesExpected goals in this matchSporting CP B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.96

Chaves

1.35

Sporting CP B

0.96

Chaves creates 41% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 26 away

1.34

creates per match

0.96

0.97

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Chaves

1.34

Sporting CP B

0.96

allows per match

Chaves

0.97

Sporting CP B

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par

Sporting CP B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Sporting CP B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Chaves or draw

73%

Chaves or Sporting CP B

72%

Draw or Sporting CP B

54%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+

22%

Sporting CP B wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals

74%

Chaves 2+ goals

39%

Chaves 3+ goals

15%

Sporting CP B 1+ goals

62%

Sporting CP B 2+ goals

25%

Sporting CP B 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)

63%

Sporting CP B (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.97 · 79 matches

Sporting CP B away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.34 + Sporting CP B defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sporting CP B attack 0.96 + Chaves defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chaves scores more

46%

level

28%

Sporting CP B scores more

27%

Chaves at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Z. Muscat← M. Tounkara

58'

Tiago Almeida← Carraca

58'

Wellington Carvalho← H. Pereira

62'

S. Justo← Kaua Oliveira

70'

L. Anjos← P. Cardoso

70'

G. Silva← M. Couto

81'

Roberto← U. Milovanovic

81'

Ktatau← Joao Teixeira

86'

M. Kissanga← R. Nel

86'

R. Besugo← E. Felicissimo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChavesSporting

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots10

3Corners1

12Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots10

0On Target3

3Off Target5

6Blocked2

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

473Total Passes431

398Accurate Passes365

84%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Offsides2