Chaves 0–3 Sporting CP: Result & Stats

Chaves

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting CP

1/13/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 17Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chaves23%

×Draw23%

Sporting CP54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChavesExpected goals in this matchSporting CP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.81

Chaves

1.08

Sporting CP

1.81

Sporting CP creates 68% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 137 away

1.21

creates per match

2.07

1.56

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Chaves

1.21

Sporting CP

2.07

allows per match

Chaves

1.56

Sporting CP

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par

Sporting CP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Sporting CP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chaves or draw

46%

Chaves or Sporting CP

77%

Draw or Sporting CP

77%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+

8%

Sporting CP wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals

66%

Chaves 2+ goals

29%

Chaves 3+ goals

10%

Sporting CP 1+ goals

84%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

54%

Sporting CP 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)

29%

Sporting CP (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Sporting CP away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.96 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.21 + Sporting CP defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sporting CP attack 2.07 + Chaves defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chaves scores more

23%

level

23%

Sporting CP scores more

54%

Sporting CP at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sporting CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff