Chaves 1–2 Leixoes: Result & Stats | Segunda Liga

Chaves

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leixoes

Roberto 21' (pen)

B. Rochez 69'

Luccas Paraizo 32'

5/9/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 33Estadio Municipal de Chaves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Chaves44%

×Draw28%

Leixoes28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChavesExpected goals in this matchLeixoes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.01

Chaves

1.33

Leixoes

1.01

Chaves creates 32% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 129 away

1.34

creates per match

1.05

0.97

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Chaves

1.34

Leixoes

1.05

allows per match

Chaves

0.97

Leixoes

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par

Leixoes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Leixoes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chaves or draw

72%

Chaves or Leixoes

72%

Draw or Leixoes

56%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+

20%

Leixoes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals

74%

Chaves 2+ goals

38%

Chaves 3+ goals

15%

Leixoes 1+ goals

64%

Leixoes 2+ goals

27%

Leixoes 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)

61%

Leixoes (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.97 · 79 matches

Leixoes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.31 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.34 + Leixoes defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leixoes attack 1.05 + Chaves defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chaves scores more

44%

level

28%

Leixoes scores more

28%

Chaves at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Cláudio Araújo

21'

RobertoPenalty

24'

Mamadou Tounkara

32'

Luccas Paraizo↳ N. Serif

57'

Lourenco Henriques

69'

B. Rochez↳ Luccas Paraizo

70'

Werton← S. Agra

70'

Semeu← C. Araujo

71'

J. Delgado← A. Romero

71'

R. Esajas← Kiko

81'

R. Pina← Luccas Paraizo

82'

H. Pereira← Roberto

82'

G. Rodrigues← Ktatau

86'

Simaozinho← N. Serif

86'

A. Goncalves← F. Fonseca

88'

Wellington Carvalho← A. Rodrigues

89'

Matheus Costa

90'

Pedro Pinho

Statistics

ChavesLeixoes

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0