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Chaves vs GIL Vicente — Primeira Liga 2018

Chaves
Chaves
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente
10/7/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 8Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chaves38%
×Draw26%
GIL Vicente36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaves
1.33
GIL Vicente
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 119 away

creates per match

Chaves
1.21
GIL Vicente
1.03

allows per match

Chaves
1.56
GIL Vicente
1.46

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par
GIL Vicente+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

GIL Vicente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chaves or draw
64%
Chaves or GIL Vicente
74%
Draw or GIL Vicente
62%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+
17%
GIL Vicente wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals
74%
Chaves 2+ goals
38%
Chaves 3+ goals
15%
GIL Vicente 1+ goals
72%
GIL Vicente 2+ goals
37%
GIL Vicente 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)
51%
GIL Vicente (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.21 + GIL Vicente defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

GIL Vicente attack 1.03 + Chaves defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chaves scores more
38%
level
26%
GIL Vicente scores more
36%

Chaves at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Chaves 4–2 GIL Vicente

Chaves beat GIL Vicente 4-2 in Primeira Liga on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Chaves.