Chavdar Etropole 3–1 Sportist Svoge: Result & Stats

Chavdar Etropole

FT

3 – 1

Sportist Svoge

8/11/2018

Third League - Southwest · Round 1Stadion Chavdar (Etropole)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Chavdar Etropole57%

×Draw22%

Sportist Svoge22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chavdar EtropoleExpected goals in this matchSportist Svoge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.13

Chavdar Etropole

1.97

Sportist Svoge

1.13

Chavdar Etropole creates 74% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 26 away

2.08

creates per match

1.42

0.84

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole

2.08

Sportist Svoge

1.42

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole

0.84

Sportist Svoge

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Sportist Svoge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw

78%

Chavdar Etropole or Sportist Svoge

78%

Draw or Sportist Svoge

43%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

33%

Sportist Svoge wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

86%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

58%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

31%

Sportist Svoge 1+ goals

68%

Sportist Svoge 2+ goals

31%

Sportist Svoge 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

73%

Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sportist Svoge attack 1.42 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more

57%

level

22%

Sportist Svoge scores more

22%

Chavdar Etropole at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff