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Chavdar Etropole vs Septemvri Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
2 – 0
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
5/4/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 32Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Chavdar Etropole59%
×Draw22%
Septemvri Sofia II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.96
Septemvri Sofia II
1.01

Chavdar Etropole creates 94% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 88 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Septemvri Sofia II
1.19

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Septemvri Sofia II
1.83

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
81%
Chavdar Etropole or Septemvri Sofia II
78%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia II
41%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
35%
Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
86%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
58%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
31%
Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
64%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
27%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
76%
Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.96

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
59%
level
22%
Septemvri Sofia II scores more
19%

Chavdar Etropole at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Chavdar Etropole 2–0 Septemvri Sofia II

Chavdar Etropole beat Septemvri Sofia II 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar in Etropole.