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Chavdar Etropole vs Pirin Gotse Delchev — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
2 – 1
Pirin Gotse Delchev
Pirin Gotse Delchev
10/17/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 11Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Chavdar Etropole64%
×Draw20%
Pirin Gotse Delchev16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
2.15
Pirin Gotse Delchev
0.96

Chavdar Etropole creates 124% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 86 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Pirin Gotse Delchev
1.07

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Pirin Gotse Delchev
2.22

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Pirin Gotse Delchev+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Pirin Gotse Delchev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
84%
Chavdar Etropole or Pirin Gotse Delchev
80%
Draw or Pirin Gotse Delchev
36%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
41%
Pirin Gotse Delchev wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
88%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
63%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
36%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 1+ goals
62%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 2+ goals
25%
Pirin Gotse Delchev 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
80%
Pirin Gotse Delchev (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Pirin Gotse Delchev away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.22 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Pirin Gotse Delchev defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.15

Pirin Gotse Delchev attack 1.07 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
64%
level
20%
Pirin Gotse Delchev scores more
16%

Chavdar Etropole at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chavdar Etropole vs Pirin Gotse Delchev

Chavdar Etropole beat Pirin Gotse Delchev 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar in Etropole.