Chavdar Etropole 2–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Chavdar Etropole

FT

2 – 0

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

9/11/2021

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 7Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Chavdar Etropole68%

×Draw20%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chavdar EtropoleExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.73

Chavdar Etropole

2.06

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.73

Chavdar Etropole creates 182% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 37 away

2.08

creates per match

0.62

0.84

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole

2.08

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.62

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole

0.84

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw

88%

Chavdar Etropole or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

80%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

32%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

43%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

87%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

61%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

34%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals

52%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals

17%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

85%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.06

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more

68%

level

20%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more

12%

Chavdar Etropole at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff