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Chavdar Etropole vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
2 – 0
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
8/7/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 1Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Chavdar Etropole66%
×Draw19%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
2.23
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
0.97

Chavdar Etropole creates 130% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 78 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
85%
Chavdar Etropole or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
81%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
34%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
42%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
89%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
65%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
38%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
62%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
25%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
81%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.23

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
66%
level
19%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
15%

Chavdar Etropole at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Chavdar Etropole 2–0 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Chavdar Etropole beat Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar in Etropole.