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Chavdar Etropole vs Marek — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
5 – 1
Marek
Marek
11/3/2018Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Round 14Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Chavdar Etropole51%
×Draw24%
Marek25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.73
Marek
1.13

Chavdar Etropole creates 53% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 58 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Marek
1.41

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Marek
1.38

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Marek+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Marek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
75%
Chavdar Etropole or Marek
76%
Draw or Marek
49%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
28%
Marek wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
82%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
52%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
25%
Marek 1+ goals
68%
Marek 2+ goals
31%
Marek 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
67%
Marek (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Marek away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Marek defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.73

Marek attack 1.41 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
51%
level
24%
Marek scores more
25%

Chavdar Etropole at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Chavdar Etropole 5–1 Marek

Chavdar Etropole beat Marek 5-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia).