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Chavdar Etropole vs Levski Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
CANC
13:00
Levski Sofia II
Levski Sofia II
3/6/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 23Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Chavdar Etropole61%
×Draw23%
Levski Sofia II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.79
Levski Sofia II
0.81

Chavdar Etropole creates 121% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 69 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Levski Sofia II
0.78

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Levski Sofia II
1.49

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Levski Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
83%
Chavdar Etropole or Levski Sofia II
77%
Draw or Levski Sofia II
39%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
35%
Levski Sofia II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
83%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
53%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
26%
Levski Sofia II 1+ goals
56%
Levski Sofia II 2+ goals
19%
Levski Sofia II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
78%
Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Levski Sofia II away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.79

Levski Sofia II attack 0.78 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
61%
level
23%
Levski Sofia II scores more
17%

Chavdar Etropole at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chavdar Etropole host Levski Sofia II

March 6, 2024: Chavdar Etropole take on Levski Sofia II in Third League - Southwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chavdar Etropole host Levski Sofia II at Stadion Chavdar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.