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Chavdar Etropole vs Levski Rakovski — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
9/25/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 8Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Chavdar Etropole66%
×Draw20%
Levski Rakovski14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
2.13
Levski Rakovski
0.86

Chavdar Etropole creates 148% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 16 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Levski Rakovski
0.88

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Levski Rakovski
2.19

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Levski Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
86%
Chavdar Etropole or Levski Rakovski
80%
Draw or Levski Rakovski
34%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
42%
Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
88%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
63%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
35%
Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
58%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
21%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
82%
Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Levski Rakovski away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Levski Rakovski defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.13

Levski Rakovski attack 0.88 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
66%
level
20%
Levski Rakovski scores more
14%

Chavdar Etropole at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chavdar Etropole vs Levski Rakovski

Chavdar Etropole beat Levski Rakovski 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar in Etropole.