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Chavdar Etropole vs Kyustendil — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
CANC
00:00
Kyustendil
Kyustendil
3/21/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 23Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Chavdar Etropole48%
×Draw24%
Kyustendil28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.66
Kyustendil
1.20

Chavdar Etropole creates 38% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 114 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Kyustendil
1.56

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Kyustendil
1.24

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Kyustendil+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Kyustendil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
72%
Chavdar Etropole or Kyustendil
76%
Draw or Kyustendil
52%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
25%
Kyustendil wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
81%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
49%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
23%
Kyustendil 1+ goals
70%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
34%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
63%
Kyustendil (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Kyustendil away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Kyustendil defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kyustendil attack 1.56 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
48%
level
24%
Kyustendil scores more
28%

Chavdar Etropole at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chavdar Etropole vs Kyustendil — Match Preview

Chavdar Etropole face Kyustendil on March 21, 2020 in this Third League - Southwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Chavdar Etropole host Kyustendil at Stadion Chavdar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.