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Chavdar Etropole vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
3 – 0
Hebar II
Hebar II
3/23/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 25Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Chavdar Etropole65%
×Draw22%
Hebar II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.85
Hebar II
0.70

Chavdar Etropole creates 164% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 38 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Hebar II
0.55

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Hebar II
1.61

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Hebar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
86%
Chavdar Etropole or Hebar II
78%
Draw or Hebar II
35%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
39%
Hebar II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
84%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
55%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
28%
Hebar II 1+ goals
50%
Hebar II 2+ goals
16%
Hebar II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
83%
Hebar II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
65%
level
22%
Hebar II scores more
14%

Chavdar Etropole at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chavdar Etropole vs Hebar II

Chavdar Etropole beat Hebar II 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar in Etropole.