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Chauray vs Niort — Coupe de France 2018

Chauray
Chauray
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Niort
Niort
11/17/2018Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Municipal (Chauray)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chauray5%
×Draw27%
Niort68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chauray
0.21
Niort
1.38

Niort creates 557% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Chauray
0.00
Niort
1.43

allows per match

Chauray
1.33
Niort
0.43

finishing

Chauray+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

86%No
  • No86
  • Yes14

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chauray ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–128%
0–219%
0–39%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (28%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Chauray or draw
32%
Chauray or Niort
73%
Draw or Niort
95%

Winning margin

Chauray wins by 2+
1%
Niort wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Chauray 1+ goals
19%
Chauray 2+ goals
2%
Chauray 3+ goals
0%
Niort 1+ goals
75%
Niort 2+ goals
40%
Niort 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chauray (draw refunded)
7%
Niort (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
8%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chauray at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Niort away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chauray attack 0.00 + Niort defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.21

Niort attack 1.43 + Chauray defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Chauray scores more
5%
level
27%
Niort scores more
68%

Niort at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chauray vs Niort

Niort beat Chauray 2-0 in Coupe de France on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Municipal (Chauray).