Chattanooga Red Wolves vs One Knoxville — USL League One 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Chattanooga Red Wolves39%
One Knoxville34%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Chattanooga Red Wolves creates 10% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Chattanooga Red Wolves ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Chattanooga Red Wolves at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.93 · 27 matches
One Knoxville away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.52 + One Knoxville defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.30
One Knoxville attack 1.42 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.18
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Chattanooga Red Wolves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Chattanooga Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
One KnoxvilleChattanooga Red Wolves
Spokane Velocity
Naples
Union Omaha
Tormenta
Portland Hearts of Pine
Charlotte Independence
Alta
Forward Madison
Greenville Triumph
Texoma
Richmond Kickers
Westchester SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Chattanooga Red Wolves host One Knoxville on Saturday, 5 July 2025 at 23:00. The match is part of the USL League One 2025/2026 season.
Chattanooga Red Wolves 1 – 0 One Knoxville
Chattanooga Red Wolves beat One Knoxville 1-0 in USL League One on July 5, 2025.
Goals: M. Bentley (29').
The match was played at CHI Memorial Stadium.