Chattanooga Red Wolves 3–1 Naples: Result & Stats

Chattanooga Red Wolves

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Naples

M. Bentley 90'

M. Knapp 85'

P. Hernandez 42'

J. Onen 10'

5/14/2025

USL League One · Round 5CHI Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves48%

×Draw26%

Naples26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chattanooga Red WolvesExpected goals in this matchNaples

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.05

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.51

Naples

1.05

Chattanooga Red Wolves creates 44% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 24 away

1.64

creates per match

0.88

1.23

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.64

Naples

0.88

allows per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.23

Naples

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Naples+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chattanooga Red Wolves ↓

Naples →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chattanooga Red Wolves or draw

74%

Chattanooga Red Wolves or Naples

74%

Draw or Naples

52%

Winning margin

Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+

24%

Naples wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals

78%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals

44%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals

19%

Naples 1+ goals

65%

Naples 2+ goals

28%

Naples 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)

64%

Naples (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chattanooga Red Wolves at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

Naples away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.64 + Naples defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Naples attack 0.88 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more

48%

level

26%

Naples scores more

26%

Chattanooga Red Wolves at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chattanooga Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Ayimbila

10'

J. Onen↳ K. Henderlong

15'

16'

22'

26'

35'

42'

P. Hernandez↳ J. Ramos

65'

K. O'Connor

67'

O. Gomez← Ualefi

67'

M. Bentley← P. Hernandez

68'

Y. Lelin← J. Ayimbila

75'

M. Torrellas← K. O'Connor

76'

O. Hernandez← Z. Vazquez

76'

I. Cerro← A. Ferrin

85'

M. Knapp

86'

R. Sulia← L. Prpa

87'

J. Dengler

87'

G. Fernandes← J. Onen

88'

89'

90+8'

90+9'

90+10'

90'

Chattanooga

Naples

1

4

25

2

3

8

10

⚽

▼

Onen

23

▼

Ferrin

22

▼

Prpa

14

▼

O'Connor

9

A

Henderlon

1

Smith

22

Kinzner

11

A

▼

Ramos

66

⚽

Knapp

5

▼

Ayimbila

4

Watters

8

▼

Ualefi

6

Wessels

9

▼

Vazquez

40

Alhassan

14

⚽

▼

Hernandez

Manager: Scott MacKenzie

67'▲O. Gomez←▼Ualefi

67'▲M. Bentley←▼P. Hernandez

68'▲Y. Lelin←▼J. Ayimbila

76'▲O. Hernandez←▼Z. Vazquez

88'▲O. Green←▼J. Ramos

Chattanooga Red Wolves substitutes

12Jerez18Green3Jnohope23Lelin16Gomez17Hernandez99Morris10Bentley15Mercer

Manager: Matthew Poland

75'▲M. Torrellas←▼K. O'Connor

76'▲I. Cerro←▼A. Ferrin

86'▲R. Sulia←▼L. Prpa

87'▲G. Fernandes←▼J. Onen

Naples substitutes

17Halterman6Fernandes32Sulia21Torrellas24Rubinstein30Cerro19Bowe

USL League One: Chattanooga Red Wolves 3–1 Naples

Chattanooga Red Wolves beat Naples 3-1 in USL League One on May 14, 2025.

Goals: J. Onen (10'), P. Hernandez (42'), M. Knapp (85'), M. Bentley (90').

The match was played at CHI Memorial Stadium.

Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Naples — USL League One 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

USL League One: Chattanooga Red Wolves 3–1 Naples