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Chatham Town vs Slough Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chatham Town
Chatham Town
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Slough Town
Slough Town
7/4/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chatham Town42%
×Draw25%
Slough Town33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chatham Town
1.54
Slough Town
1.33

Chatham Town creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Chatham Town
1.83
Slough Town
1.50

allows per match

Chatham Town
1.17
Slough Town
1.25

finishing

Chatham Town+0.00on par
Slough Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chatham Town ↓

Slough Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chatham Town or draw
67%
Chatham Town or Slough Town
75%
Draw or Slough Town
58%

Winning margin

Chatham Town wins by 2+
21%
Slough Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chatham Town 1+ goals
79%
Chatham Town 2+ goals
45%
Chatham Town 3+ goals
20%
Slough Town 1+ goals
74%
Slough Town 2+ goals
38%
Slough Town 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chatham Town (draw refunded)
56%
Slough Town (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chatham Town at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Slough Town away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chatham Town attack 1.83 + Slough Town defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Slough Town attack 1.50 + Chatham Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chatham Town scores more
42%
level
25%
Slough Town scores more
33%

Chatham Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chatham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chatham Town vs Slough Town

Chatham Town and Slough Town drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 4, 2026.