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Chatham Town vs Rochester United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chatham Town
Chatham Town
FT
2 – 0
Rochester United
Rochester United
6/12/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chatham Town75%
×Draw17%
Rochester United8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chatham Town
2.25
Rochester United
0.58

Chatham Town creates 288% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chatham Town
1.83
Rochester United
0.00

allows per match

Chatham Town
1.17
Rochester United
2.67

finishing

Chatham Town+0.00on par
Rochester United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chatham Town ↓

Rochester United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chatham Town or draw
92%
Chatham Town or Rochester United
83%
Draw or Rochester United
25%

Winning margin

Chatham Town wins by 2+
51%
Rochester United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Chatham Town 1+ goals
89%
Chatham Town 2+ goals
65%
Chatham Town 3+ goals
39%
Rochester United 1+ goals
44%
Rochester United 2+ goals
12%
Rochester United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Chatham Town (draw refunded)
90%
Rochester United (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chatham Town at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Rochester United away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chatham Town attack 1.83 + Rochester United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.25

Rochester United attack 0.00 + Chatham Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Chatham Town scores more
75%
level
17%
Rochester United scores more
8%

Chatham Town at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Chatham Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Chatham Town 2–0 Rochester United

Chatham Town beat Rochester United 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 12, 2021.