Châtellerault 0–1 Avoine OCC: Result & Stats

Châtellerault

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Avoine OCC

11/19/2022

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade De La Montée Rouge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Châtellerault25%

×Draw26%

Avoine OCC49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChâtelleraultExpected goals in this matchAvoine OCC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.50

Châtellerault

1.00

Avoine OCC

1.50

Avoine OCC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

1.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Châtellerault

1.33

Avoine OCC

1.33

allows per match

Châtellerault

1.67

Avoine OCC

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Châtellerault+0.00on par

Avoine OCC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Châtellerault ↓

Avoine OCC →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Châtellerault or draw

51%

Châtellerault or Avoine OCC

74%

Draw or Avoine OCC

75%

Winning margin

Châtellerault wins by 2+

Avoine OCC wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Châtellerault 1+ goals

63%

Châtellerault 2+ goals

26%

Châtellerault 3+ goals

Avoine OCC 1+ goals

78%

Avoine OCC 2+ goals

44%

Avoine OCC 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Châtellerault (draw refunded)

34%

Avoine OCC (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Châtellerault at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Avoine OCC away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Châtellerault attack 1.33 + Avoine OCC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Avoine OCC attack 1.33 + Châtellerault defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Châtellerault scores more

25%

level

26%

Avoine OCC scores more

49%

Avoine OCC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Avoine OCC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff