Chateauroux 3–3 Valenciennes: Result & Stats

Chateauroux

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Valenciennes

A. Gonçalves 90'

I. Chouaref 57'

E. Ntim 9' (OG)

E. Ntim 83'

J. Cuffaut 73', 47'

1/23/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Gaston Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 161+ matches

Chateauroux42%

×Draw27%

Valenciennes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.08

Chateauroux

1.33

Valenciennes

1.08

Chateauroux creates 23% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 178 away

1.23

creates per match

0.95

1.22

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.23

Valenciennes

0.95

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.22

Valenciennes

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

70%

Chateauroux or Valenciennes

73%

Draw or Valenciennes

58%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

19%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

74%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

38%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

15%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

66%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

29%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

58%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 161 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.23 + Valenciennes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Valenciennes attack 0.95 + Chateauroux defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chateauroux scores more

42%

level

27%

Valenciennes scores more

30%

Chateauroux at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chateauroux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

I. Chouaref

Chateauroux · M

9.0

Match Events

9'

E. NtimOwn goal

34'

Alexis Goncalves Pereira

36'

Baptiste Guillaume

46'

G. Robail← A. Elogo

47'

J. Cuffaut↳ G. Robail

57'

62'

64'

70'

73'

J. Cuffaut↳ G. Robail

74'

G. Tormin← G. Sunu

74'

M. Picouleau← N. Diliberto

76'

Remi Mulumba

77'

C. Doucouré← P. Keny

82'

B. Canelhas← L. Leroy

83'

Nama Fofana

83'

E. Ntim↳ G. Robail

89'

E. Dabo← K. Cabral

90'

A. Gonçalves↳ I. Chouaref

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChateaurouxValenciennes

Overview

39%Possession61%

17Total Shots6

3Corners0

21Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots6

5On Target5

7Off Target1

5Blocked0

12Inside Box2

5Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

298Total Passes474

198Accurate Passes370

66%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls14

5Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Chateauroux vs Valenciennes

Chateauroux and Valenciennes drew 3-3 in Ligue 2 on January 23, 2021.

Goals: E. Ntim (9' o.g., 83'), J. Cuffaut (47', 73'), I. Chouaref (57'), A. Gonçalves (90').

Valenciennes controlled possession (61%) and registered 6 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Petit in Châteauroux.

Chateauroux vs Valenciennes — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Chateauroux vs Valenciennes