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Chateauroux vs Le Havre — Ligue 2 2018

Chateauroux
Chateauroux
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Le Havre
Le Havre
2/28/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 27Stade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chateauroux28%
×Draw28%
Le Havre44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chateauroux
0.97
Le Havre
1.29

Le Havre creates 33% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 93 away

creates per match

Chateauroux
1.00
Le Havre
1.12

allows per match

Chateauroux
1.46
Le Havre
0.94

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par
Le Havre+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Le Havre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw
56%
Chateauroux or Le Havre
72%
Draw or Le Havre
72%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+
10%
Le Havre wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals
62%
Chateauroux 2+ goals
25%
Chateauroux 3+ goals
7%
Le Havre 1+ goals
72%
Le Havre 2+ goals
37%
Le Havre 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)
39%
Le Havre (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

Le Havre away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.00 + Le Havre defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Le Havre attack 1.12 + Chateauroux defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chateauroux scores more
28%
level
28%
Le Havre scores more
44%

Le Havre at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Le Havre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Chateauroux 0–3 Le Havre

Le Havre beat Chateauroux 3-0 in Ligue 2 on February 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux) in Châteauroux.