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Châteaubriant vs TA Rennes — Coupe de France 2018

Châteaubriant
Châteaubriant
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TA Rennes
TA Rennes
11/16/2019Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade de la Ville en Bois

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Châteaubriant63%
×Draw21%
TA Rennes16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Châteaubriant
2.00
TA Rennes
0.90

Châteaubriant creates 122% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Châteaubriant
1.00
TA Rennes
1.00

allows per match

Châteaubriant
0.80
TA Rennes
3.00

finishing

Châteaubriant+0.00on par
TA Rennes+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Châteaubriant ↓

TA Rennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Châteaubriant or draw
84%
Châteaubriant or TA Rennes
79%
Draw or TA Rennes
37%

Winning margin

Châteaubriant wins by 2+
38%
TA Rennes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Châteaubriant 1+ goals
86%
Châteaubriant 2+ goals
59%
Châteaubriant 3+ goals
32%
TA Rennes 1+ goals
59%
TA Rennes 2+ goals
23%
TA Rennes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Châteaubriant (draw refunded)
79%
TA Rennes (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Châteaubriant at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

TA Rennes away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Châteaubriant attack 1.00 + TA Rennes defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

TA Rennes attack 1.00 + Châteaubriant defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Châteaubriant scores more
63%
level
21%
TA Rennes scores more
16%

Châteaubriant at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Châteaubriant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Châteaubriant vs TA Rennes

Châteaubriant beat TA Rennes 4-0 in Coupe de France on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de la Ville en Bois in Châteaubriant.