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Charlton vs Wolves — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
15:00
Wolves
Wolves
2/6/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30The Valley
43%
Wolves
model favours
29%28%43%

Wolves score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Charlton29%
×Draw28%
Wolves43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.00
Wolves
1.28

Wolves creates 28% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 11 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.00
Wolves
1.36

allows per match

Charlton
1.20
Wolves
1.00

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
57%
Charlton or Wolves
72%
Draw or Wolves
71%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
11%
Wolves wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
63%
Charlton 2+ goals
26%
Charlton 3+ goals
8%
Wolves 1+ goals
72%
Wolves 2+ goals
37%
Wolves 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
40%
Wolves (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

Wolves away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.00 + Wolves defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Wolves attack 1.36 + Charlton defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Charlton scores more
29%
level
28%
Wolves scores more
43%

Wolves at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wolves win just 0% of their away games
  • 38% of Wolves’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Charlton and Wolves have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Charlton
DWLWL
Wolves
DDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charlton vs Wolves — Match Preview

Charlton face Wolves on February 6, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Charlton host Wolves at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.