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Charlton vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
14:00
Stoke City
Stoke City
4/10/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42The Valley
41%
Charlton
model favours
41%27%32%

Charlton have scored in 9 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Charlton41%
×Draw27%
Stoke City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.35
Stoke City
1.16

Charlton creates 16% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 52 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.10
Stoke City
1.05

allows per match

Charlton
1.27
Stoke City
1.61

finishing

Charlton-0.10scores less
Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
68%
Charlton or Stoke City
73%
Draw or Stoke City
59%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
19%
Stoke City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
74%
Charlton 2+ goals
39%
Charlton 3+ goals
15%
Stoke City 1+ goals
69%
Stoke City 2+ goals
32%
Stoke City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
56%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 20 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.61 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.10 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.35

Stoke City attack 1.05 + Charlton defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Charlton scores more
41%
level
27%
Stoke City scores more
32%

Charlton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton score first in only 30% of matches
  • 70% of Charlton’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Charlton
Direct / counter-attacking
Stoke City
Balanced
44%PossessionBiggest gap50%
71%Pass accuracy75%
10.4Shots11.4
0.99xG1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CharltonStoke City

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Charlton
0
Draws
2
Stoke City
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 50%
1–00–31–33–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Charlton
WDWLW
City
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charlton vs Stoke City — Match Preview

Charlton face Stoke City on April 10, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Charlton host Stoke City at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.