Charlton 1–5 Southampton: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 5

Southampton

L. Jones 45'

F. Azaz 43', 22'

C. Jander 20'

A. Armstrong 16'

R. Manning 14'

11/22/2025

Championship · Round 16The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Charlton33%

×Draw26%

Southampton41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.41

Charlton

1.22

Southampton

1.41

Southampton creates 16% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 44 away

1.10

creates per match

1.54

1.27

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Charlton

1.10

Southampton

1.54

allows per match

Charlton

1.27

Southampton

1.33

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Charlton-0.10scores less

Southampton+0.05on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

59%

Charlton or Southampton

74%

Draw or Southampton

67%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

14%

Southampton wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

70%

Charlton 2+ goals

34%

Charlton 3+ goals

12%

Southampton 1+ goals

76%

Southampton 2+ goals

41%

Southampton 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

44%

Southampton (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 20 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.10 + Southampton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Southampton attack 1.54 + Charlton defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Charlton scores more

33%

level

26%

Southampton scores more

41%

Southampton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Southampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Azaz

Southampton · F

9.5

Match Events

14'

R. Manning↳ T. Fellows

16'

A. Armstrong

20'

C. Jander↳ A. Armstrong

22'

F. Azaz↳ A. Armstrong

24'

J. Rankin-Costello← R. Apter

43'

45'

60'

61'

65'

J. Aribo← F. Azaz

65'

J. Robinson← L. Scienza

73'

K. Anderson← S. Carey

73'

L. Berry← C. Coventry

73'

T. Olaofe← G. Docherty

75'

Kayne Ramsay

75'

D. Downs← A. Armstrong

76'

F. Downes← C. Bragg

77'

Joe Rankin-Costello

78'

H. Knibbs← M. Leaburn

86'

R. Edwards← T. Fellows

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonSouthampton

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots23

0.67Expected Goals (xG)4.63

3Corners4

15Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots23

2On Target8

5Off Target9

5Blocked6

8Inside Box16

4Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

323Total Passes493

271Accurate Passes440

84%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.18Goals Prevented0.18

Discipline

15Fouls6

4Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1