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Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
15:00
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
11/7/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15The Valley
Big match
40%
Sheffield Utd
model favours
33%27%40%

Charlton have scored in 9 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Charlton33%
×Draw27%
Sheffield Utd40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.16
Sheffield Utd
1.31

Sheffield Utd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 42 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.12
Sheffield Utd
1.31

allows per match

Charlton
1.32
Sheffield Utd
1.19

finishing

Charlton-0.12scores less
Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
60%
Charlton or Sheffield Utd
73%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
67%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
13%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
69%
Charlton 2+ goals
32%
Charlton 3+ goals
11%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
73%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
38%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
45%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.12 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sheffield Utd attack 1.31 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Charlton scores more
33%
level
27%
Sheffield Utd scores more
40%

Sheffield Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton score first in only 30% of matches
  • 70% of Charlton’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Style contrast — Charlton play Direct / counter-attacking, Sheffield Utd Attack-heavy

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Charlton
Direct / counter-attacking
Sheffield Utd
Attack-heavy
43%Possession53%
70%Pass accuracy78%
10.4Shots13.3
1.00xGBiggest gap1.53
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CharltonSheffield Utd

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

4
Charlton
1
Draws
2
Sheffield Utd
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 29%
1–01–01–21–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Charlton
WDWLW
Utd
WWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — Match Preview

Charlton face Sheffield Utd on November 7, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Charlton host Sheffield Utd at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.