Charlton 1–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

S. Carey 46'

1/17/2026

Championship · Round 27The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Charlton32%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.34

Charlton

1.15

Sheffield Utd

1.34

Sheffield Utd creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 39 away

1.12

creates per match

1.36

1.32

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Charlton

1.12

Sheffield Utd

1.36

allows per match

Charlton

1.32

Sheffield Utd

1.18

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Charlton-0.12scores less

Sheffield Utd+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

59%

Charlton or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

68%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

13%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

68%

Charlton 2+ goals

32%

Charlton 3+ goals

11%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

74%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

39%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

44%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.12 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sheffield Utd attack 1.36 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Charlton scores more

32%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

41%

Sheffield Utd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

S. McCallum

Sheffield Utd · D

8.3

Match Events

35'

39'

42'

45+2'

45+6'

B. Mee← T. Cannon

45+6'

S. Peck← C. O'Hare

46'

T. Campbell← J. Bree

46'

L. Dykes← C. Kelman

46'

H. Burrows← T. Bindon

46'

S. Carey↳ L. Dykes

52'

Lloyd Jones

68'

G. Hamer← O. Arblaster

68'

T. Campbell← P. Bamford

74'

Tyreece Campbell

78'

Joe Rankin-Costello

90+4'

Femi Seriki

90+3'

M. Godden← M. Leaburn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonSheffield

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots11

1.07Expected Goals (xG)0.73

9Corners7

13Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target2

3Off Target5

5Blocked4

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

391Total Passes287

312Accurate Passes202

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.08Goals Prevented-0.08

Discipline

13Fouls7

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards2

2Offsides1

Championship: Charlton 1–0 Sheffield Utd

Charlton beat Sheffield Utd 1-0 in Championship on January 17, 2026.

Goals: S. Carey (46').

Charlton controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Valley in London.

Charlton vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Charlton 1–0 Sheffield Utd