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Charlton vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
M. Leaburn 49'
J. Clarke-Harris 65'
12/26/2022League OneLeague One · Round 23The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Charlton43%
×Draw25%
Peterborough32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.55
Peterborough
1.29

Charlton creates 20% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 157 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.65
Peterborough
1.46

allows per match

Charlton
1.13
Peterborough
1.46

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
68%
Charlton or Peterborough
75%
Draw or Peterborough
57%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
22%
Peterborough wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
79%
Charlton 2+ goals
46%
Charlton 3+ goals
20%
Peterborough 1+ goals
72%
Peterborough 2+ goals
37%
Peterborough 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
58%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Charlton scores more
43%
level
25%
Peterborough scores more
32%

Charlton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
L. NessCharltonCharlton · D
7.3

Match Events

44'
George Dobson
49'
M. Leaburn↳ D. Kanu
65'
J. Clarke-Harris↳ J. Ward
72'
R. Jones← E. Mason-Clark
72'
H. Kyprianou← J. Fuchs
74'
J. Stockley← D. Kanu
75'
J. Rak-Sakyi← J. Payne
75'
A. Henry← S. Fraser
82'
C. Kirk← M. Leaburn
90'
J. Taylor← K. Poku

Possession

51%Charlton

Shots

8Charlton

Pass accuracy

51%Charlton

Statistics

CharltonPeterborough
Overview
51%Possession49%
8Total Shots19
3Corners10
14Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots19
3On Target6
5Off Target6
0Blocked7
5Inside Box16
3Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
368Total Passes341
259Accurate Passes233
70%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

League One: Charlton 1–1 Peterborough

Charlton and Peterborough drew 1-1 in League One on December 26, 2022.

Goals: M. Leaburn (49'), J. Clarke-Harris (65').

Charlton controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 19.

The match was played at The Valley in London.