Charlton 0–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Peterborough

J. Cummings 89' (pen)

8/21/2018

League One · Round 4The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Charlton43%

×Draw25%

Peterborough32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.29

Charlton

1.55

Peterborough

1.29

Charlton creates 20% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 157 away

1.65

creates per match

1.46

1.13

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Peterborough

1.46

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Peterborough

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

68%

Charlton or Peterborough

75%

Draw or Peterborough

57%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

22%

Peterborough wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

79%

Charlton 2+ goals

46%

Charlton 3+ goals

20%

Peterborough 1+ goals

72%

Peterborough 2+ goals

37%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

58%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Charlton scores more

43%

level

25%

Peterborough scores more

32%

Charlton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

29'

36'

62'

62'

66'

78'

83'

G. Cooper← S. Dembele

89'

Dillon Phillips

89'

J. CummingsPenalty

90'

Marcus Maddison

90'

Jason Cummings

Charlton

Peterborough

1

5

2

16

3

4

8

10

▼

Dembele

9

▼

Godden

35

⚽

Cummings

15

▼

1

20

5

23

3

15

4

17

19

▼

Morgan

9

Taylor

18

Ahearne-G

Manager: L. Bowyer

66'▲N. Ajose←▼A. Morgan

Charlton substitutes

25Ajose21Steer2Dijksteel7Marshall32Lapslie36Maloney37Hackett-Fairchild

Manager: S. Evans

62'▲I. Toney←▼M. Godden

62'▲M. Maddison←▼J. Ward

83'▲G. Cooper←▼S. Dembele

Peterborough substitutes

17Toney21Maddison19Cooper11Reed14Cooke20Yorwerth40Tyler

League One: Charlton 0–1 Peterborough

Peterborough beat Charlton 1-0 in League One on August 21, 2018.

Goals: J. Cummings (89' pen).

The match was played at The Valley in London.

Charlton vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League One: Charlton 0–1 Peterborough