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Charlton vs Milton Keynes Dons — League One 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
2/22/2022League OneLeague One · Round 35The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Charlton45%
×Draw25%
Milton Keynes Dons30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.52
Milton Keynes Dons
1.20

Charlton creates 27% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 95 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.65
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

allows per match

Charlton
1.13
Milton Keynes Dons
1.40

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
70%
Charlton or Milton Keynes Dons
75%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
55%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
22%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
78%
Charlton 2+ goals
45%
Charlton 3+ goals
20%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
70%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
34%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
60%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 141 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Charlton scores more
45%
level
25%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
30%

Charlton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charlton vs Milton Keynes Dons

Milton Keynes Dons beat Charlton 2-0 in League One on February 22, 2022.

The match was played at The Valley in London.