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Charlton vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
8/5/2023League OneLeague One · Round 1The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Charlton44%
×Draw25%
Leyton Orient31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.53
Leyton Orient
1.23

Charlton creates 24% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 71 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.65
Leyton Orient
1.32

allows per match

Charlton
1.13
Leyton Orient
1.42

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
69%
Charlton or Leyton Orient
75%
Draw or Leyton Orient
56%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
22%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
78%
Charlton 2+ goals
45%
Charlton 3+ goals
20%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
71%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
35%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
59%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 141 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Leyton Orient defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.53

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Charlton scores more
44%
level
25%
Leyton Orient scores more
31%

Charlton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charlton vs Leyton Orient

Charlton beat Leyton Orient 1-0 in League One on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at The Valley in London.