Charlton 1–1 Forest Green: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Forest Green

C. Blackett-Taylor 9'

C. Wickham 45'

9/13/2022

League One · Round 9The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Charlton59%

×Draw23%

Forest Green18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchForest Green

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.91

Charlton

1.84

Forest Green

0.91

Charlton creates 102% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 23 away

1.65

creates per match

0.70

1.13

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Forest Green

0.70

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Forest Green

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Forest Green →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

82%

Charlton or Forest Green

77%

Draw or Forest Green

41%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

34%

Forest Green wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

84%

Charlton 2+ goals

55%

Charlton 3+ goals

28%

Forest Green 1+ goals

60%

Forest Green 2+ goals

23%

Forest Green 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

76%

Forest Green (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Forest Green away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Forest Green defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.84

Forest Green attack 0.70 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Charlton scores more

59%

level

23%

Forest Green scores more

18%

Charlton at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

G. Dobson

Charlton · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

C. Blackett-Taylor↳ J. Payne

37'

42'

45'

58'

59'

59'

A. Morgan← C. McGrandles

72'

C. Clayden← R. Chin

72'

J. Stockley← M. Leaburn

79'

A. Little← C. Wickham

80'

D. Jaiyesimi← C. Blackett-Taylor

90+7'

90+7'

90+7'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonForest

Overview

65%Possession35%

18Total Shots10

4Corners6

15Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots10

6On Target2

9Off Target5

3Blocked3

11Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

563Total Passes303

492Accurate Passes218

87%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2