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Charlton vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
1/22/2022League OneLeague One · Round 29The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Charlton46%
×Draw25%
Fleetwood Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.54
Fleetwood Town
1.15

Charlton creates 34% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 132 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.65
Fleetwood Town
1.17

allows per match

Charlton
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.44

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
72%
Charlton or Fleetwood Town
75%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
54%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
23%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
79%
Charlton 2+ goals
45%
Charlton 3+ goals
20%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
68%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
32%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
62%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 141 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.44 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.54

Fleetwood Town attack 1.17 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Charlton scores more
46%
level
25%
Fleetwood Town scores more
28%

Charlton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Charlton 2–0 Fleetwood Town

Charlton beat Fleetwood Town 2-0 in League One on January 22, 2022.

The match was played at The Valley in London.