Charlton 3–0 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Exeter City

M. Leaburn 84'

T. Campbell 68'

A. MacDonald 20' (OG)

2/22/2025

League One · Round 33The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Charlton49%

×Draw25%

Exeter City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.09

Charlton

1.61

Exeter City

1.09

Charlton creates 48% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 96 away

1.65

creates per match

1.06

1.13

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Exeter City

1.06

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Exeter City

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

74%

Charlton or Exeter City

75%

Draw or Exeter City

51%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

26%

Exeter City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

80%

Charlton 2+ goals

48%

Charlton 3+ goals

22%

Exeter City 1+ goals

66%

Exeter City 2+ goals

30%

Exeter City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

66%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.58 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Exeter City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Exeter City attack 1.06 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Charlton scores more

49%

level

25%

Exeter City scores more

26%

Charlton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

K. Ramsay

Charlton · D

7.9

Match Events

19'

Ilmari Niskanen

20'

A. MacDonaldOwn goal

31'

R. Woods← I. Niskanen

46'

T. Yogane← J. Richards

51'

55'

64'

68'

69'

72'

75'

75'

M. Leaburn← M. Godden

79'

P. Jones← R. Trevitt

79'

A. Oluwabori← J. Colwill

84'

M. Leaburn↳ K. Ramsay

86'

D. Kanu← T. Campbell

86'

T. McIntyre← C. Coventry

89'

T. Watson← J. Edwards

90+5'

Macaulay Gillesphey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonExeter

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots6

6Corners2

10Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots6

5On Target1

1Off Target1

5Blocked4

8Inside Box2

3Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

399Total Passes330

301Accurate Passes222

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0