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Charlton vs Derby — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
14:00
Derby
Derby
8/15/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1The Valley
43%
Charlton
model favours
43%26%31%

Charlton sit 20, Derby 8 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Charlton43%
×Draw26%
Derby31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.44
Derby
1.17

Charlton creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 25 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.45
Derby
0.96

allows per match

Charlton
1.37
Derby
1.43

finishing

Charlton-0.45scores less
Derby+0.20scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
69%
Charlton or Derby
74%
Draw or Derby
57%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
21%
Derby wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
76%
Charlton 2+ goals
42%
Charlton 3+ goals
18%
Derby 1+ goals
69%
Derby 2+ goals
33%
Derby 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
58%
Derby (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 5 matches

Derby away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.43 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.45 + Derby defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Derby attack 0.96 + Charlton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Charlton scores more
43%
level
26%
Derby scores more
31%

Charlton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton fall short of their xG (0.6 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Charlton
Balanced
Derby
Direct / counter-attacking
46%Possession45%
71%Pass accuracy74%
11.3Shots10.2
1.22xGBiggest gap1.10
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CharltonDerby

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Charlton
DWLWL
Derby
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charlton face Derby (Championship)

Championship returns with Charlton hosting Derby. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Charlton host Derby at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.