Charlton 2–2 Crewe: Result & Stats | League One

Charlton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Crewe

A. Gilbey 83'

J. Stockley 10'

O. Dale 90+6', 67'

4/27/2021

League One · Round 38The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Charlton54%

×Draw24%

Crewe22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.99

Charlton

1.69

Crewe

0.99

Charlton creates 71% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 50 away

1.65

creates per match

0.86

1.13

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Crewe

0.86

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Crewe

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

78%

Charlton or Crewe

76%

Draw or Crewe

46%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

29%

Crewe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

82%

Charlton 2+ goals

50%

Charlton 3+ goals

24%

Crewe 1+ goals

63%

Crewe 2+ goals

26%

Crewe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

71%

Crewe (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Crewe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.74 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Crewe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Crewe attack 0.86 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Charlton scores more

54%

level

24%

Crewe scores more

22%

Charlton at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

O. Dale

Crewe · F

8.6

Match Events

10'

J. Stockley↳ A. Gilbey

29'

Owen Dale

45'

Nathan Wood-Gordon

50'

Ian Maatsen

55'

C. Washington← I. Maatsen

60'

61'

67'

67'

75'

R. Inniss← J. Stockley

75'

D. Pratley← B. Watson

83'

86'

90'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonCrewe

Overview

39%Possession61%

11Total Shots16

3Corners7

11Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots16

3On Target4

5Off Target6

3Blocked6

8Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

311Total Passes485

211Accurate Passes376

68%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls7

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3