Charlton 2–1 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cheltenham

11/28/2023

League One · Round 20The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Charlton51%

×Draw24%

Cheltenham25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.07

Charlton

1.66

Cheltenham

1.07

Charlton creates 55% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 69 away

1.65

creates per match

1.01

1.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

75%

Charlton or Cheltenham

76%

Draw or Cheltenham

49%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

27%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

81%

Charlton 2+ goals

49%

Charlton 3+ goals

23%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

66%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

29%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

68%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 141 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Charlton scores more

51%

level

24%

Cheltenham scores more

25%

Charlton at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff