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Charlton vs Carlisle — League One 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Carlisle
Carlisle
3/9/2024League OneLeague One · Round 37The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Charlton53%
×Draw24%
Carlisle23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.67
Carlisle
1.00

Charlton creates 67% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 23 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.65
Carlisle
0.87

allows per match

Charlton
1.13
Carlisle
1.70

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
77%
Charlton or Carlisle
76%
Draw or Carlisle
47%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
29%
Carlisle wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
81%
Charlton 2+ goals
50%
Charlton 3+ goals
23%
Carlisle 1+ goals
63%
Carlisle 2+ goals
26%
Carlisle 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
70%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 141 matches

Carlisle away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Carlisle defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Carlisle attack 0.87 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Charlton scores more
53%
level
24%
Carlisle scores more
23%

Charlton at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charlton vs Carlisle

Charlton beat Carlisle 3-2 in League One on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at The Valley in London.