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Charlton vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
19:45
Burnley
Burnley
2/16/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 32The Valley
Big match
58%
Burnley
model favours
16%25%58%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Charlton16%
×Draw25%
Burnley58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
0.69
Burnley
1.56

Burnley creates 126% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

Charlton
0.90
Burnley
1.79

allows per match

Charlton
1.32
Burnley
0.47

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
42%
Charlton or Burnley
75%
Draw or Burnley
84%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
4%
Burnley wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
50%
Charlton 2+ goals
15%
Charlton 3+ goals
3%
Burnley 1+ goals
79%
Burnley 2+ goals
46%
Burnley 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
22%
Burnley (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 0.90 + Burnley defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.69

Burnley attack 1.79 + Charlton defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Charlton scores more
16%
level
25%
Burnley scores more
58%

Burnley at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games
  • Burnley have won 5 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Charlton
DWLWL
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Charlton vs Burnley — Match Preview

Charlton face Burnley on February 16, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Charlton host Burnley at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.