Burnley 4–0 Charlton: Result & Stats | Championship

Burnley

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Charlton

S. Vokes 78'

A. Gray 55'

S. Arfield 53', 44'

12/19/2015

Championship · Round 22Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Burnley64%

×Draw23%

Charlton13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.65

Burnley

1.77

Charlton

0.65

Burnley creates 172% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 34 away

1.89

creates per match

0.82

0.48

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Burnley

1.89

Charlton

0.82

allows per match

Burnley

0.48

Charlton

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

87%

Burnley or Charlton

77%

Draw or Charlton

36%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

38%

Charlton wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

83%

Burnley 2+ goals

53%

Burnley 3+ goals

26%

Charlton 1+ goals

48%

Charlton 2+ goals

14%

Charlton 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

83%

Charlton (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.89 + Charlton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.77

Charlton attack 0.82 + Burnley defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Burnley scores more

64%

level

23%

Charlton scores more

13%

Burnley at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

S. Arfield

Burnley · M

8.1

Match Events

29'

K. Ahearne-Grant← Ricardo Vaz Té

44'

S. Arfield↳ A. Gray

53'

S. Arfield↳ D. Marney

55'

A. Gray↳ G. Boyd

62'

Z. Bergdich← A. Diarra

66'

N. Sarr← P. Bauer

78'

S. Vokes↳ M. Lowton

80'

R. Hennings← A. Gray

82'

M. Taylor← G. Boyd

82'

M. Kightly← S. Arfield

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyCharlton

Overview

53%Possession47%

19Total Shots12

7Corners5

0Fouls0

Shots

19Total Shots12

7On Target6

5Off Target4

7Blocked2

14Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

394Total Passes354

295Accurate Passes247

75%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0