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Charlton vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

Charlton
Charlton
Preview
14:00
Bristol City
Bristol City
10/10/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9The Valley
Big match
42%
Charlton
model favours
42%26%31%

Bristol City score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Charlton42%
×Draw26%
Bristol City31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.40
Bristol City
1.17

Charlton creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 26 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.39
Bristol City
1.04

allows per match

Charlton
1.30
Bristol City
1.41

finishing

Charlton-0.22scores less
Bristol City-0.04on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
69%
Charlton or Bristol City
74%
Draw or Bristol City
58%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
20%
Bristol City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
75%
Charlton 2+ goals
41%
Charlton 3+ goals
17%
Bristol City 1+ goals
69%
Bristol City 2+ goals
33%
Bristol City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
57%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.30 · 6 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.41 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.39 + Bristol City defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Charlton defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Charlton scores more
42%
level
26%
Bristol City scores more
31%

Charlton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Charlton fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Charlton
Balanced
Bristol City
Balanced
46%Possession49%
71%Pass accuracy78%
11.3Shots11.5
1.27xGBiggest gap1.05
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CharltonBristol City

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Charlton
1
Draws
3
Bristol City
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–20–03–21–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Charlton
DWLWL
City
WLDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Charlton host Bristol City

October 10, 2026: Charlton take on Bristol City in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Charlton host Bristol City at The Valley.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.